WP09 has developed an online tool for comparing the risk of Disease X- a novel, potentially pandemic-causing pathogen emergence across the globe and across the year
Through WP09 - Disease X use case scenario – they have developed an online tool for comparing the risk of Disease X- a novel, potentially pandemic-causing pathogen emergence across the globe and across the years.
This model combines data on 10 key drivers of Disease X emergence together to produce one global risk map. The overall risk scenario can be tailored to predict different types of Disease X, depending on the disease situation. More information on how the tool works, what the drivers are, and what different scenarios are covered is provided in the app.
https://k8plex-veo.vo.elte.hu/notebook/report/wfct0p-diseasextool/
The app has been developed to allow the user to generate global risk maps by combining the 10 key drivers of disease X emergence together into a weighted average. The weights used can be set by the user, or they can use one of 4 preset disease scenarios, where the weights are set according to the results of the expert knowledge elicitation exercise carried out this reporting period. Using experts from within the consortium and outside the consortium, which allows the tool to apply unequal weights to the drivers included within the tool. The expert opinions (derived from within the consortium and outside) were given in the form of qualitative rankings and aggregated into a quantitative average for each driver for each of the four fictional disease scenarios. This combined average is then used to weight the drivers for that disease scenario. The uncertainty associated with the weightings were also included.
The user can also compare between two timepoints to investigate the change over time in the global risk value.